Marketing. We will see a decline of traditional media, and a concentration and digitization of advertising. Consumers will be sourcing their info and ‘cool’ online, via very few, integrated and global platforms. Marketing needs to adjust to this behavioral shift. All of this needs to be orchestrated centrally, with a strong set of corporate positions and a periphery of experimentation & negotiation.
Trade. Brick & Mortar will see increasing concentration (M&A). Online will be the dominant business model. We need to be digital first, and especially mobile first. Brick & Mortar operations will slim down, reducing the latitude for Marketing experimentation in B&M vs. today. On the other hand, the caveat is that Online will continue to operate with minimum working capital & continental reach, to maximize ROI. While Online needs a more of a Regional & Global approach, old world Brick & Mortar efforts need to concentrate on the few accounts and doors that matter, managing the rest for cash. Trade will require assortment segmentation, and an uber flexible supply chain, to please the niche and the mass, the physical and the digital shopper.
Near future. Media will change faster than Trade, which will continue to present itself in a mix of Global, Regional and Local players. Online sales will grow in the double digit range – but representing less than 1/3 of commerce, even though virtually 100% of search will start Online. Supply Chain, Innovation, Assortment Management, Story Telling will be asked to deliver on demand, following a test & scale up approach, with a firm look at the big picture from the center.
There will not be a lack of ideas. The struggle will be to decide between the many ideas, while letting go of what may not be ready yet for a big bang.